Events on the African Continent are a reflection of ‘Big Game’ maneuvers

However, of particular interest are the current events in Egypt, which have led to a change of political course and the decades-old regime in this key African country. Indeed, the events in Egypt are, in many respects, defining the future destiny of the continent. It was not surprising that Egypt has since prehistoric times been called ‘the Gate of Africa.’ We, the authors of this article, shall try to analyze and help understand the fast-changing events that are today sweeping through the ‘Black Continent’ like huge tsunamis.

Africa on geopolitical and geo-economic maps of modern world

By the beginning of the 21st century, there were only two continents on the planet — Africa and Antarctica — that were not fully involved in the ongoing globalization processes. And, if the industrial development of the latter was restrained by its extreme geographical remoteness and harsh climate, the question of the so-called ‘repeat or second colonization’ of the former has always been a question of time. 

Historically, though by virtue of features of its climate, Africa was basically left out of the expansion of the industrial world, it did not completely drop out from the attention of the developed western states. Beginning from the 16th century, Africa was caught in the colonization waves, which ended during the WWII that facilitated the process of ‘decolonization.’ This process peaked in 1960, now called the Year of Africa, when the highest number of countries on the continent — 13 in all — got their independence. 

“Historically, though by virtue of features of its climate, Africa was basically left out of the expansion of the industrial world, it did not completely drop out from the attention of the developed western states.”

The fact that the boundaries of the new African states were artificially delineated during ‘the splitting of the continent into spheres of colonial dominions,’ without taking into consideration the natural distribution of African tribes and also the fact that the whole continent was not ready for democracy, led to civil wars in several countries after their independence. Some of these wars ended in the establishment of dictatorships and autocratic regimes known for their total disregard for human rights, bureaucracy, tribalism, which in turn, ignited crises in domestic economies and poverty.

The arbitrary establishment of state boundaries in African is one of several examples of the realization of postcolonial policy by the Great Britain and its allies to always get a pretext to interfere in the continent’s local affairs. The basic idea was built on the fact that Britain, understanding that the objective processes of political reorganization would not enable it to keep a full control over its colonies, decided to grant them sovereignty.

Possessing information on the real state of affairs, and fully knowing the ‘conflictogenic’ potential of its former colonies, Britain, drawing on its broad experience as  ‘political adviser’, took an active part in shaping the statehood of the new independent countries. It was here that the beauty of this policy was displayed in all its refinement. Specifically, the boundaries of the new African states were formed in such a manner that would ensure for many decades, if not centuries, that there will always be conflicts and/or new latent sources of disagreements will always appear on the continent, which will only require an insignificant external pressure to be transformed from their latent states into open conflicts or intertribal wars. Such policies were previously executed in Israel and Palestine, India and Pakistan, as well as in other parts of Central Asia, but it was in Africa that they were used on a continental scale.

Thus, the majority of modern conflicts in Africa ‘have been programmed in advance’ by the West in such a way that it will always have reasons to return to its colonies under the pretexts of ‘peace-making missions’ and ‘humanitarian interventions’ as well as other equally beautifully sounding slogans that will brilliantly mask its real objectives during the pacification of the warring parties. This is the scenario that is currently been played out in Africa today. The deep financial and economic shocks of the Western civilization, which exacerbated into a long-term financial and economic crisis, have again forced the Western World to ‘play, or more appropriately, re-divide, the African card.’ 

Multinational corporations’ competition in Africa

Prior to the beginning of the 20th century, Africa was largely seen as a source of cheap raw materials for multinational corporations (MNC). On one hand, this led to the aggravation of internal conflicts caused by an unfair competition, while on the other hand guaranteeing relative peace, as each MNC, having got access to its needed raw material, calmed down. The most typical example of the MNC’s competition in Africa was illustrated by the situations in Congo and Rwanda. The rapid development of industrialized economies of the western countries led to quests for accesses to new resources. The battle for coltan, one of these quests, was covered in an article, titled, “Blood in Mobile Phone.”

The article author justly highlighted interesting facts in the development of Congo, considered as one of the richest sources of natural resources in the world, which is currently tethering on the brink of absolute poverty. We all use the mobile phones, almost 500mln units of which are sold annually. Each device requires columbite tantalite, produced from coltan ores, 80% of global deposits of which are located in Congo alone. Apart from this, Congo is also home to a third of world reserves of diamonds, almost 50% of cobalt and 25% of uranium as well as significant oil, copper, gold and silver deposits. 

Today’s Congo, being one of the richest states of the world, could, ceteris paribus, afford a standard of living not worse than that of the United Arab Emirates, but it currently languishes among the world’s most deprived nations, thanks to such companies as America Mineral Fields Inc., Nokia, Siemens, Cobatt, H.C. Starck, Ningxia and others. 

For almost 50 years Congo has been in a state of war, called the “Congolese civil war” or “the second African or global coltan wars,” a conflict kept alive by the global corporate consumption of this strategic element. The scheme works like this: coltan exported abroad is sold and the generated revenue used to secure weapons. This means the above-listed corporations are, de-facto, ‘the financiers’ of the perennial conflicts in Congo. 

The battle for post-crisis global leadership in full force in Africa

Today, it is clear that the United States, the main economic and geopolitical competitor of China, is finding it difficult to come to term with the fact that the Chinese economy has received a powerful stimulating boost from Africa’s huge industrial resources. To meet the rising raw materials demand of its rapidly growing economy, China needed an additional boost in the form of cheap raw materials, a role that Africa actively started playing in recent years.

“The majority of modern conflicts in Africa ‘have been programmed in advance’ by the West to enable it return to its colonies under the false pretexts of ‘peace-making missions,’ ‘humanitarian interventions’ and other beautiful slogans that will brilliantly mask its real objectives.”

The increase in the struggle for Africa’s resources was initially manifested via ‘the Somali piracy phenomenon’ at the end of the 20th century. Notably, the most significant increase in the pirates’ activities took place in 2006-07. Incidentally, this period also marked the beginning of the active realization of China’s economic development programs in Africa.

The characteristic features of the pirates’ raids on cargo ships in African waters have indicated that their activities were supervised by ‘a very firm hand’ from abroad. Notably, the capture of Faina, the Ukrainian ship with lots of armaments onboard, was carried out by the Somali pirates on a tip-off from Odessa, the port of the vessel’s departure. Equally interesting is the fact that the major opponents against the adoption of an international legislation against piracy were the United States and Great Britain, which blocked the harsh initiatives proposed by other countries at the United Nations.

The intensity in the U.S.-China global power struggle was further illustrated by their disagreements over the plans for reforming the global monetary system at the Seoul G20 Summit in 2010. Then, the disagreement between the two great powers led to a ‘hot confrontation’ between their dominions on the Korean Peninsula. By the same token, the events currently taking place in a number of African and Middle East states are also a reflection of the ongoing struggle between the United States and China for a paramount leadership role in the post-crisis world.

In a related development, the events in Sudan have strengthened the U.S. position and reduced the influence of China in the African country with rich oil deposits. Similarly, the social upheavals in Egypt are also a manifestation of the struggle between these two countries. Remarkably, the situation in Egypt has exacerbated the depth of the regional tension, notably, between Israel and Iran. This development has forced Israel to strengthen its security arrangements with the adjacent states. In this context, the existing Mubarak regime was seen as no longer satisfying the Tel-Aviv’s interests, which, in case of a further complication of the situation around Iran, would be threatened from the Egyptian side.

Extrapolation of the Middle East events to CIS countries

The events currently unfolding in the Arabian world have made us ‘living witnesses’ of Big Game geopolitical maneuvers on a global chessboard. The fact that the visit of Russian President Dmitry Medvedev to Israel in January 2011 was canceled is also an element of the same game, while the officially cited reason, the strike of the Israeli diplomats, was only a pretext, and a weak one at that. The main reason was that the presence of the leader of Russia, the successor of the great Soviet Union, on an official state visit to one of the key countries of region on the eve of major political events in the region, was seen by the events’ ‘directors’ as completely inexpedient. The intensity and dynamism of the events unfolding in the Arab world have once again highlighted the tension in the world and the absence of a precise plan among the global leaders to successfully exit it. 

It is interesting to note that at the height of the events in Egypt certain commentaries appeared in the media regarding the probability of the occurrence of similar events in Russia and Armenia. For instance, Gevork Pogosyan, the chairman of the Armenian Union of Sociologists, did not exclude the possibility of the Middle East events occurring in Armenia. “Threat of occurrence of the Egyptian scenario in our country is underpinned by the ongoing exacerbation of the social and economic situation as well as increasingly vocal public protests against the government’s inability to improve its citizens’ lives.” 

Echoing a similar view, Leonid Ivashov, the president of the Russian Academy of Geopolitical Studies and a renowned Russian political scientist, also does not exclude a repeat of the Middle East events in Russia. “Whether or not such a scenario will happen will become clear soon,” he added. “But it is an indisputable fact that certain hostile forces would want to use the growing social inequality, rising social tension in our society and the absence of a precisely formulated policy on strategic national development to their own selfish interests against Russia.”

All the above-stated factors will make one conclude that our today’s world is again on the verge of fundamental geopolitical transformations. At the same time, it is equally right to assume that China will not disregard the events happening today in the Arab world and will in the near future give an adequately symmetric answer to them. The whole world shall soon know the Chinese response — which could either take the form of overthrowing the ruling regimes in U.S. satellite states in the Middle East, notably, Saudi Arabia, or such retaliatory measure will be more refined and executed in a totally different part of world.

* The authors, Sergei Grinaev and Gagik Arutyunyan, represent, respectively, the CSEF, Moscow, and the Noravank Foundation, Yerevan.