CEOs’ Opinions & Prognoses
Assessment of the Russian Economy in 2008
The quality of the Russian government has undergone fundamental changes over the past years, evident in the state’s growing attention to the SME problems. For instance, at the OPORA’s extraordinary congress on September 24, Deputy Economic Minister Anna Popova suggested declaring 2008 “The SME’s Year.” In fact, 2008 was really successful for the Russian business, particularly the positive changes in state support. Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has declared the SME development one of the state’s priorities. We see the establishment of the State Commission for the SME Development as a great achievement. First Deputy Premier Igor Shuvalov heads the Commission, while Economic Minister Elvira Nabiullina and my humble self are his deputies. In spite of numerous unresolved problems, today, there are positive trends in business development, evident in the 5% increase in the number of SMEs. Only four years ago, about 70% of SMEs operated in the ‘shadow’ sector, but today, this figure is less than 50%. The Federal Program for Support of the SMEs, crafted by the Economic Ministry, is picking up speed, with about 3.85bln.rubs allotted to it in 2008 and up to 40bln.rubs earmarked for it in 2009. Naturally, a lot still needs to be done to make the SMEs a basic element of the economic system. However, the current official policy on the SME development gives rooms for optimism. And, if this trend is maintained, the SMEs will not only grow quantitatively, but also qualitatively in the nearest future, occupying new niches in different sectors of the economy.
Forecasts for the Russian economy for 2009
"Some of the necessary steps to soften the impact of the financial crisis on business development include declaring a moratorium on tightening regulations on business activities."
Making prognoses is a very unrewarding affair. Today, there are lots of forecasts, most which negative. However, I am sure that any shock, such as the current global economic crisis, does not only pose great problems, but also offers great possibilities. This gives people a chance to prove themselves, demonstrate their best professional skills and make the best use of their accumulated experience. The exit from the crisis will depend on the behavior of the government and the steps being taken to boost economic development. First of all, this refers to supporting business on a broader scale, specifically, easing access to financial and property resources. Besides, we need to improve the regulatory legal base on business activities, with the end goal being to maximally simplify all the procedures regulating the SME activities, including licensing requirements, chartering of companies (registration), taxation, labor relations, reorganization, liquidation or bankruptcy procedures. Some of these procedures need to be done on a notification, rather on a mandatory basis.
Exit conditions and scenarios from the crisis
First of all, we are interested in measures aimed at supporting the SMEs. For instance, we have drafted a program, “The Complex Immediate Actions for Supporting SMEs in Global Crisis.” Some of the necessary steps to soften the impact of the financial crisis on business development include declaring a moratorium on tightening regulations on business activities. Others include increasing loan opportunities for SMEs. In addition, the OPORA suggests freezing lease rates on SMEs’ premises, introduction of tax holidays on corporate profits, etc. These and other proposals for boosting the SME development were submitted to the government and Economic Ministry and were also presented at a session of the State Commission on the SME Development on November 12.
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