Russian tandem’s conflicting presidential ambitions put the elite on edge
After years of being vague on his 2012 presidential aspirations, Dmitry Medvedev, the incumbent Russian leader, moved a step closer to publicly declaring his reelection bid in an interview to a Chinese TV channel, saying a decision on this issue will be made shortly. “I can tell you that as the current head of state, I think about the 2012 presidential election. It is my duty. But I must note that I don’t rule out the possibility of seeking a second term in the Kremlin.”
Thereafter, the president went on to list a number of political, economic and social factors that would define his decision to seek or not to seek a second term in the Kremlin. “This decision should take into account the prevailing social situation, current political environment and, most importantly, our citizens’ attitudes,” he added. “One has to weigh all the chances, avoid acting mechanically, and, instead, proceed with a clear understanding of the situation. I expect such understanding to form within a relatively short time.”
A political bombshell from Putin
However, as the local and international communities were about to read this as a the long-awaited sign that a deal has been struck on this issue with the elite and all the relevant political forces in the country, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin dropped what could be technically called a ‘political bombshell, saying that he also does not exclude the possibility of participating in the 2012 presidential race. “Neither me nor President Medvedev has ruled out the possibility of running for election in 2012. We intend to make a decision based on the real situation in the country at a later date, closer to the elections. It is too early to do so now.”
This later statement has again thrown the ‘political guessing game’ about the ruling Russian elite’s real candidate for the 2012 election into a complete disarray. Putin even sounded irritated by the election question that has been dodging the Russian tandem leadership ever since the current political diarchy was set up in 2008. “If we make any erroneous indications now, half of Presidential administration and half of the Cabinet would stop working in anticipation of some changes. We have a country of about 143mln citizens and, therefore, we cannot afford any disruptions."
In a ‘normal democracy,’ there is no speculation over whether an elected incumbent head of state that meets constitutional consecutive terms requirement could stand for a re-election. For instance, in the United States, the incumbent president, Barack Obama, does not expect any challenges from his party members for the Democratic Party’s nomination slot in the 2012 election. But the situation in Russia is a bit different as Medvedev, a former Putin protegee, became a president in 2008 because the Russian Constitution legally barred his predecessor from seeking a third consecutive presidential term in the Kremlin. But today, the situation has changed and the nation’s two most influential political heavyweights are now eligible for the presidential race, and hence could end up challenging each other at the 2012 vote, a move that will significantly boost the chances of opposition candidates for victory in the upcoming election.
“In well-established democracies, there is no speculation over whether or not an elected incumbent head of state, who meets constitutional consecutive terms requirement, can stand for a re-election.”
Indeed, the stake in the March 2012 election is much higher this time around, as Russia’s next president will not serve a four-year term as currently the case, but six years, thanks to the recent amendments to the local Constitution’s limitations on presidential terms. Meanwhile, experts do not expect to see a clear configuration of political forces for the presidential election before mid-December, when all possible aspirants will have declared their intentions. This also applies to the Medvedev-Putin tandem, as it is currently not clear who will actually turn out to be the ruling elite’s flag bearer at the poll.
Elite nervous over ruling party’s candidacy uncertainty
This uncertainty has created palpable nervousness among the country’s ruling political elite, top ranking bureaucrats and leading business tycoons and high-profile culture celebrities, who are afraid of making ‘a fatal false start’ by backing the ‘wrong horse’ in 2012. “There is growing nervousness between the two camps supporting either of the diarchy leadership members. It is understood that one of these camps supports Putin, seen as a conservative candidate, while the other is for Medvedev, largely viewed as a more liberal politician,” Alexei Mukhin, head of the Center for Political Information, a think tank, said.
This nervousness was also probably responsible for the United Russia's reaction to the president’s 2012 declaration, with a key party member, State Duma First Deputy Speaker Oleg Morozov and a member of the party's influential Supreme Council, saying the incumbent president could successfully seek a second term only if this is approved by Putin and run on the United Russia party’s platform. “Putin is our party leader. Therefore, if he says he will run for presidency, then he will be our candidate. This is our principle position, which is totally natural and logical,” he added. “If our party leader agrees that Medvedev will be the candidate, then United Russia is the country's only political force he can rely on.”
Commenting on the ambiguity over the ruling party’s probable candidate for 2012, Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin noting that both Medvedev and Putin will depend on United Russia for victory in the forthcoming election, offered the party leaders to hold internal discussion on choosing a single candidate, in other words, to hold some kind of ‘intraparty primaries between the president and the prime-minister. “It is obvious that there is a need for such discussion to decide which of the leaders to support. It is democratic to hold such discussions within political structures. I know, for instance, that such intraparty discussions are usually held in the United States before nominating candidates for the presidency.”
However, it seems that Kudrin's statement did not go down well with the United Russia leadership, which, forced to balance its position with the uncertainty over the tandem’s stance on 2012, has decided to not to play an active role in the decision-making process, leaving everything to Putin to decide for the party. Such passive stance was evident from the statement made on the election issue by Boris Gryzlov, the State Duma speaker and chairman of the party’s Supreme Council. “Putin is the founder of our party and its unconditional leader and, consequently the position which will be formulated by him, will, unconditionally, be the priority for our party.”
But Gleb Pavlovsky, the director of Effective Politics Foundation, disagreed with Gryzlov, calling his statement erroneous and inappropriate, because he had actually confirmed the fact that a solution as strategically vital to the party and to country will be left to just one person. “On the contrary, Kudrin's proposal, as a matter of fact, is worthy taken into consideration. “Certainly, there should be discussions; they are already going. However, it will be difficult to give to such discussions a formal primaries character in our country because corresponding procedures have yet to be developed.”
Meanwhile, the position of Russian Federation Council Chairman Sergei Mironov, who till April 16 also doubled as the chairman of Just Russia, a self-styled quasi-opposition party that is 100% loyal to the tandem leadership, is already crystal clear. This is evident in a program speech he made at the party congress, where he noted that his party will support neither Medvedev nor Putin if both decide to run for the nation’s No. 1 office. “This is because such decision will be a catastrophic mistake for our country. Therefore, Medvedev and Putin need to decide between themselves who should eventually run for the post.” Mironov also noted that any candidate nominated by United Russia for the presidency will not be endorsed and supported by Just Russia. “In autumn, we shall decide whom to nominate for the post. I don’t exclude any variant, therefore, such candidate could be me, could be someone else.”
In a recent interview to NTV, Nikita Mikhalkov, an Oscar winning film director and a looming public figure in the country, said he would unequivocally support for Putin for the presidency, should he decide to a seek a return back to the Kremlin. “Putin’s job as prime minister has enabled him as no other to really feel the expansiveness of our country,” he added.
Elite maintaining neutrality over fear of wrong guessing the 2012 candidate
However, other less brave United Russia party apparatchiks, business elite and social celebrities, who have something to lose in case of ‘wrong guessing’ the tandem’s real candidate for the 2012 election, are sitting tight on the fence, maintaining absolute neutrality, and watching how the guessing game will end before finally declaring their allegiance to the ‘chosen and approved candidate.’
Just as it happened in 2008, when the incumbent president and Sergei Ivanov, both first deputy prime ministers at the time, were the officially designated candidates for Putin’s replacement in the Kremlin. The elite, divided between these two candidates, maintained absolute neutrality, as it watched the political satire play out, but as soon as Medvedev was officially chosen as the ‘heir designate,’ the elite’s support pendulum swung to his side.
Consequently, Ivanov was left to wallow alone with a devastated political future and career dead end in his former opponent’s administration, where is currently serving as a minister without portfolio. Therefore, all the Russian electorate needs to do today is to wait until next spring to see who from the ruling tandem will be favored by political fortune and who will have to shield his presidential ambitions for a further future date.
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